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Reuters

BoC to raise rates by 25 bps to peak of 4.50% on Jan. 25: Reuters poll

The Bank of Canada will hike its key interest rate by a modest quarter point to 4.50% on Jan. 25 and then hit pause on an aggressive tightening campaign, according to a Reuters poll of economists, with risks skewed toward a higher peak. Inflation, which clocked 6.3% in December, is still more than three times the Bank’s 2% target and is expected to remain above it at least through Q3 2024, despite a median 65% chance of recession within a year, up from 51% in the last poll. That leaves the BoC in a tight spot, having been inclined to pause its rate-hiking campaign in December but with recent economic data on jobs and inflation suggesting it may not be quite done.

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